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Wealth Hotline Wealth Hard Indicators Determine the Bottom Line of Growth
Judging from the recent information conveyed by relevant departments, the core goal of the 13th Five-Year Plan is to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.
Xu Lin, director of the Development Planning Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, previously said that from the perspective of achieving the requirement of doubling a well-off society proposed by the 18th National Congress, if this year’s economic growth rate is calculated according to estimates, then the predetermined doubling target will be achieved by 2020. The average economic growth rate must reach , that is, the bottom line is about . On the basis of this bottom line, whether a higher level of development can be achieved depends on the impact of other constraints, such as whether strategic constraints and resource and environmental constraints have a favorable or unfavorable impact.
Some experts said that it is calculated based on the annual and per capita income doubling goals proposed in the 18th National Congress report, and is the bottom line for growth in the next few years. The so-called doubling r means that factors such as price changes must be fully taken into account. Calculating doubling per capita income r is not simply a matter of multiplying r by two. It also requires taking into account factors such as inflation.
Li Yang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that in terms of speed alone, achieving the two doubling goals does not actually require a too fast average annual growth rate. In the next few years, The goal of doubling can be achieved as long as the average annual economic growth rate reaches around . Taking into account the factor of population growth, to achieve the goal of doubling per capita income, the requirements for economic development will be higher. A rough estimate of the average annual growth rate of around .
Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the Economic Forecast Department of the State Information Center, believes that the average annual economic growth rate during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is around . This is predicted based on the potential economic growth capacity during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Mainly because this speed helps each province advance its goals of reform and structural adjustment, and is a relatively reasonable goal.
Economic growth potential is expected
Industry insiders said that adapting to the development characteristics of the new stage and reasonably setting the development goals and indicator system for the 13th Five-Year Plan are key.
Qiu Baoxing, counselor of the State Council and chairman of the China Urban Planning Society, recently responded to a question about the economic growth target of the 13th Five-Year Plan, saying that there may have been slight adjustments to some of the original important indicators, and some changes may have been made to some indicators. In particular, for some indicators related to economic growth, some indicators such as environmental indicators and some indicators of total factor growth rate should be fine-tuned according to the current stage of development of national economic productivity and the environment. The growth rate is more suitable between...